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26.123 Head of Forecasting and Workforce Modelling

Disclosure & Barring Service

Department
Disclosure & Barring Service
Location
This role is available on a remote, hybrid, or office basis. Initially, all DBS employees' contracts are office-based at one of our two sites. Employees can apply for remote or hybrid work from day one.
Openings
1 post
Grade
Grade 7
Salary
£60,380 to £64,882
Closing
7 days left
Profession
Analysis and Statistics, Project & Programme Delivery, Operational Delivery, Policy
Contract
Permanent
Security clearance
BPSS
Working pattern
Flexible working, Full-time, Part-time, Compressed hours
Apply on Civil Service Jobs

Job summary

About the Department:

The Disclosure and Barring Service (DBS) was established as a Non-Departmental Public Body (NDPB) under the Protection of Freedoms Act (PoFA) 2012. We provide criminal record information to individuals and employers through DBS checks and we make barring decisions about individuals to help prevent harm to children and vulnerable adults.

The Strategy and Impact Directorate brings together strategy, insight, research, knowledge management, communications, partnerships, policy and performance management to help DBS lead, influence and demonstrate impact.

What they’re looking for

  • Key Responsibilities
  • Lead the development and delivery of high‑quality Forecasting and Workforce Modelling, using data from multiple systems and sources to support operational, strategic, financial and governance decision‑
  • Act as the senior operational Forecasting and Workforce Modelling lead for Disclosure and Barring, providing a single point of accountability for identifying risks, assuring data quality, and shaping evidence‑based solutions.
  • Lead capacity planning and demand management for major change programmes (including LTER and service transitions), ensuring continuity of service, risk mitigation and operational readiness.
  • Lead the continuous improvement of the DBS forecasting and workforce modelling systems, exploiting available and emerging technology.
  • Lead, motivate and develop high‑performing Forecasting and Workforce Modelling Team, setting clear objectives, prioritising workloads, quality assuring outputs and building future capability.
  • Drive workforce, capacity and resource planning across Operations, ensuring demand, work allocation meet agreed quality, accuracy and performance tolerances.
  • Build strong collaborative relationships across DBS, ensuring forecasting and workforce modelling information inform business planning, continuous improvement and operational delivery.
  • Own and drive delivery of the DBS Data Strategy action plan, coordinating activity across business areas and ensuring progress against agreed priorities to improve data quality, resilience and use.
  • Lead compliance with the Government Functional Standard for Analysis, including organisation‑wide assessments and delivery of improvement actions to support continuous improvement in analytical practice.
  • Lead organisational data maturity improvement, including maturity assessments and delivery of improvement actions to strengthen data capability and reduce risk.
  • Attend the Demand Planning Forum, ensuring demand forecasts are robust, accurate and reflect operational and financial risks within a self‑funding environment.
  • Represent the function in technical Forecasting and Workforce Modelling discussions, data and software projects, and continuous professional development initiatives, improving analytical capability and tools.
  • Act as a member of the Directorate Management Team, contributing to collective leadership, governance and organisational objectives.
  • Deputise for the Associate Director – Organisational Performance and Intelligence as required.
  • Undertake actions and corporate responsibilities in keeping with a member of the Directorate Management Team.
  • Corporate Duties:
  • Support the Associate Director of Organisational Performance and Intelligence in their role as a member of the Directorate Leadership Team (DLT), and by engaging in and helping to drive change as required.
  • Member of the wider DBS Leadership Team, specifically contributing to development and delivery of business opportunities, organisational development, and value for money.
  • From time to time, the postholder may be asked to support corporate activity with duties that are commensurate with the grade (e.g. supporting other parts of the business with HR related matters)
  • Essential Criteria:
  • Ability to deliver and lead others under pressure, prioritising work against competing demands to meet challenging deadlines.
  • Strong analytical skills, with the ability to understand and analyse numerical data, and to identify and report the most salient points to interested parties, including senior stakeholders.
  • Able to lead the development of Forecasting and Workforce Modelling Tools and prioritisation of what Forecasting and Workforce Modelling is developed and when for a wide range of users.
  • Confident in the use of software applications including Microsoft Office suite.
  • Record of achievement in a similar role, of operating in a complex environment, preferably in a comparable local and/or central government or relevant policy body/agency
  • Experience of developing an effective approach to data collection and analysis which can drive operational delivery as well as inform and influence strategic direction
  • Experience of building effective strategic working relationships with a wide range of stakeholders
  • Experience of workforce planning in a large operational area
  • Experience of leading teams, providing direction and managing performance
  • Experience of producing Forecasts and Workforce Models for a range of audiences including senior management.
  • Experience of using Government Functional Standards and CDDO Data Maturity Framework to drive continuous improvement.
  • Desirable Criteria:
  • Ability to develop Ml using modern Ml Tools, i.e. Tableau, QIik Sense or Microsoft Power BI
  • Experience of demand scenario planning
  • Understanding of business case methodologies.
  • Expert and current knowledge of Business Intelligence tools and technologies and their application in delivering high calibre information.
  • Further Information:
  • To view the DBS Recruitment and On-boarding Privacy Notice, please click the link below:
  • DBS Recruitment and On-boarding Privacy Notice - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
  • This privacy notice covers personal data collected during the recruitment, security clearance and on-boarding process.

Behaviours you’ll be assessed on

This advert says the panel will score you against these behaviours at Grade 7 level. Each one links to worked examples.

Job description

Job Purpose:

To lead the provision of high‑quality Forecasting and Workforce Modelling at DBS, ensuring robust, evidence‑based insight underpins operational delivery, major change programmes, financial sustainability and governance decision‑making. The role is accountable for forecasting accuracy, data quality, risk identification and capacity planning across Operations, enabling DBS to anticipate demand, deploy resources effectively and maintain service continuity within a self‑funding environment.

The postholder will lead and develop a high‑performing analytical function, drive continuous improvement in forecasting systems and data maturity, and ensure compliance with government analytical standards. As a senior member of the Directorate Management Team, the role contributes to collective leadership, organisational performance and delivery of the DBS Data Strategy, strengthening data capability and resilience across the organisation.

Nationality requirements

This job is broadly open to the following groups:

  • UK nationals
  • nationals of the Republic of Ireland
  • nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
  • nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window)
  • nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
  • individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
  • Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service

Further information on nationality requirements (opens in a new window)

Selection process

This vacancy is using Success Profiles (opens in a new window), and will assess your Behaviours and Experience.

As part of the recruitment process the Disclosure & Barring Service will conduct a behaviours/experience based sift exercise and interview process.

To apply for this post, please provide a CV along with a suitability statement of no more than 1,000 words, outlining how your skills, experience and qualifications meet the requirements of the role, including all essential and desirable criteria, and the key responsibilities. You should also provide an example for the behaviour Changing and Improving

All candidates who are successful at the initial sifting stage will be invited to attend a virtual panel based interview via MS Teams. As part of the interview, you will deliver a short presentation on a function related subject. You will be given a brief for the presentation in advance of your interview. The presentation will be marked against the behaviour, Managing a quality service.

The aim of the panel interview will be to assess your ability to demonstrate the remaining behaviours:

  • Seeing the big picture
  • Changing and improving
  • Making effective decisions
  • Leadership
  • Delivering at pace

The following timetable outlines indicative dates. Please note, these dates may be subject to change without prior notice.

Advert Closing date: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 10am.

The initial candidate sift is due to take place week commencing 7 September 2026.

Interviews are due to take place week commencing 21 September 2026.

Whilst we will endeavour to provide some flexibility with regards to dates wherever possible, it is unlikely that we will be able to offer an alternative date once an appointment has been scheduled.

Feedback will only be provided if you attend an interview or assessment.

Practise before you apply

Civil Service panels score every answer against the Success Profiles behaviours at Grade 7 level. Practise STAR answers and get them marked against the same framework.

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